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In today’s Daily Dive, we’re covering some visuals to illustrate bitcoin’s spot and derivatives market dynamics. We can do this by looking at two key metrics compared to price: the futures perpetual funding rate and the long-term holder net position change.
As a refresher, the futures perpetual funding rate was covered more in-depth in The Daily Dive #097 – Derivatives Market Breakdown. It’s a key fee to observe, particularly when the market is overleveraged to 1 aspect with the derivatives market having extra affect over the short-term worth.
The 2 charts beneath present bitcoin worth overlaid with the perpetual funding fee. Because the market is traditionally biased lengthy, the colour thresholds are lowered within the second chart to higher emphasize intervals of any adverse funding. Total, the charts present when the derivatives market is both inflating or suppressing worth.
The darkish blue areas present when the market was overleveraged to the lengthy aspect and the darkish pink areas present the other. Every of those excessive intervals include subsequent, explosive strikes in worth as positions are worn out.
The derivatives market influences worth within the brief time period however long-term worth is pushed by adoption, sustained spot demand and the conduct of long-term holders. The long-term holder web place change is one technique to view this conduct because it’s the 30-day change in provide held by long-term holders.
As we’ve coated earlier than, each bitcoin worth all-time excessive comes with a big distribution of cash from long-term holders to new market entrants. Intervals of darkish pink present this within the beneath chart whereas intervals of darkish blue present comparatively heavy accumulation intervals over bitcoin’s lifetime.